GGOALVIO

Ecuador · Liga Pro · 5/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Independiente del Valle · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Macara are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Independiente del Valle are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Independiente del Valle hold a 21.3-point power-rating edge (57.0 v 78.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.6% in the Liga Pro, while Independiente del Valle holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Independiente del Valle

Probability

49.9%

Model confidence

13.6%

Independiente del Valle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MacaraWDLWW

GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Independiente del ValleWLWWW

GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MacaraIndependiente del Valle
44.4Attack81.3
66.7Defence68.0
56.9Form85.3
57.0Power78.3
0.85xG1.46
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