Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Macara 1-0 Emelec, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Macara 1-0 Emelec
Original prediction
Macara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.7% | 51.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.8% | 28.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.5% | 19.8% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Projected Score
Macara 1–0 Emelec
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Macara
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Macara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MacaraLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EmelecWDWLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MacaraEmelec
46.0Attack28.7
62.1Defence62.1
55.2Form44.8
55.7Power47.5
1.15xG0.58