Maarduvs
Tallinna Kalev
POSTPONEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/13/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maardu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (6%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.3% | 42.3% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.0% | 19.2% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.8% | 38.5% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–26%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
Maardu
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Maardu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaarduLWWWL
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Tallinna KalevLDLLW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MaarduTallinna Kalev
56.0Attack59.5
29.8Defence36.9
48.8Form42.9
46.5Power46.8
2.37xG2.37