Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Maardu are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Elva are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Elva hold an 11.9-point power-rating edge (42.2 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.5% in the Esiliiga A, while Elva holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 79% BTTS chance and 83% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
7.5%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40