Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon W 0-0 Chelsea W
Original prediction
Lyon W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 65.1% | 44.7% | -20.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.53 | 20.1% | 24.7% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 6.15 | 14.8% | 30.7% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lyon W
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Lyon W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lyon WWWWWW
GF 35 · GA 3 · avg 7.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Chelsea WWWWWD
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Lyon WChelsea W
100.0Attack77.8
100.0Defence77.8
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power87.0
1.88xG1.80