Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon 4-0 Rennes
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 43.8% | 40.5% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.6% | 26.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 30.6% | 33.0% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LyonWDWDL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RennesDWWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LyonRennes
50.0Attack66.7
83.3Defence58.3
66.7Form83.3
68.0Power73.7
1.42xG1.26