Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Lyon are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while PAOK are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lyon hold a 10.8-point power-rating edge (65.3 v 54.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lyon holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20