Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lyon 1-0 Nice, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon 2-1 Nice
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 53.3% | 55.9% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 24.5% | 24.6% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 22.2% | 19.6% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Projected Score
Lyon 1–0 Nice
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
55.9%
Model confidence
55.9%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LyonWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NiceWWLDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LyonNice
61.1Attack27.8
77.8Defence61.1
61.1Form44.4
65.8Power47.3
1.65xG0.68