Lyonvs
Manchester United
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 4/10/2025, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lyon are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Manchester United are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Manchester United hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (65.3 v 69.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.1% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lyon holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60