Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon 1-1 Le Havre
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 64.6% | 50.8% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 21.2% | 25.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 6.69 | 14.2% | 23.7% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LyonLWDWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Le HavreLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LyonLe Havre
66.7Attack0.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
88.7Power23.7
1.78xG1.01