Lyonvs
Fenerbahçe
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 8/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.8% | 39.8% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.2% | 27.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.9% | 32.4% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LyonWDWLL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FenerbahçeWDLWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LyonFenerbahçe
55.6Attack40.0
66.7Defence86.7
44.4Form73.3
54.9Power69.5
1.23xG1.17