Lyonvs
Crystal Palace
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 40.1% | 37.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 26.3% | 27.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 33.7% | 34.7% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LyonLWWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Crystal PalaceWLDWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LyonCrystal Palace
66.7Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power97.0
1.45xG1.38