Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lyon 3-1 Auxerre
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 64.8% | 53.3% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 20.9% | 24.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 6.66 | 14.2% | 22.3% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LyonDLWDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AuxerreLLWDD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
LyonAuxerre
50.0Attack50.0
83.3Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
68.0Power21.5
2.01xG1.06