Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luzern W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Luzern W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Thun W are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Luzern W holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luzern W
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Luzern W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20