Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luzern W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Luzern W are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Thun W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Thun W hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Luzern W holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luzern W
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Luzern W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80
GF 1 · GA 16 · avg 0.20/3.20