Luxembourgvs
Iceland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luxembourg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland
Original prediction
Luxembourg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.36 | 27.8% | 45.3% | 17.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.7% | 26.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 43.5% | 28.1% | -15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Luxembourg
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Luxembourg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60