Luxembourgvs
Bulgaria
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luxembourg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria
Original prediction
Luxembourg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.2% | 40.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 30.1% | 29.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 27.7% | 30.2% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Luxembourg
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Luxembourg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60