Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luunja · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-3 (6%), 4-3 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luunja 3-2 Tulevik
Original prediction
Luunja
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.6% | 46.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.6% | 18.1% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.8% | 35.4% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–36%
- 2.4–36%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Luunja
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Luunja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LuunjaLLLLW
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TulevikWLDDL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LuunjaTulevik
84.0Attack82.7
30.9Defence33.3
54.3Form50.6
54.6Power55.1
3.85xG3.35