GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 1/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Luton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Swindon Town are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Luton hold a 53.3-point power-rating edge (71.7 v 18.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Luton holds the strongest overall chance at 81% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Luton

Probability

81.0%

Model confidence

81.0%

Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LutonWLWWL

GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Swindon TownWWLWW

GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20

BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
LutonSwindon Town
83.3Attack22.2
58.3Defence11.1
75.0Form11.1
71.7Power18.5
3.73xG0.98
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