Lutonvs
Stockport County
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stockport County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luton 2-0 Stockport County
Original prediction
Stockport County
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 38.6% | 34.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.4% | 25.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 35.0% | 39.9% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Stockport County
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Stockport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60