Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Luton are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Plymouth are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Luton hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (71.7 v 66.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Luton holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80