Lutonvs
Leyton Orient
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luton 1-1 Leyton Orient
Original prediction
Luton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 56.0% | 39.4% | -16.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 23.5% | 24.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.55 | 20.5% | 35.8% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LutonWLLDW
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Leyton OrientDWLDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LutonLeyton Orient
88.9Attack75.0
0.0Defence58.3
44.4Form50.0
46.6Power57.9
1.61xG1.88