GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/28/2025, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Luton are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Brighton U21 are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Luton hold an 18.0-point power-rating edge (71.7 v 53.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Luton holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Luton

Probability

58.4%

Model confidence

58.4%

Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LutonWLLLD

GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Brighton U21DWLDW

GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LutonBrighton U21
83.3Attack44.4
58.3Defence66.7
75.0Form50.0
71.7Power53.7
2.22xG1.12
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