Lutonvs
Brighton U21
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 10/28/2025, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Luton are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Brighton U21 are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Luton hold an 18.0-point power-rating edge (71.7 v 53.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Luton holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60