Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Luton 0-1 Bradford
Original prediction
Luton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.5% | 37.0% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.1% | 26.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 28.4% | 36.8% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LutonLDWLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BradfordWWWLL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LutonBradford
66.7Attack33.3
27.8Defence77.8
44.4Form66.7
48.2Power61.7
1.27xG1.40