Lusitânia Lourosavs
Os Limianos
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lusitânia Lourosa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lusitânia Lourosa 2-1 Os Limianos
Original prediction
Lusitânia Lourosa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 78.8% | 47.4% | -31.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.83 | 15.6% | 23.9% | 8.4 pts |
| Away | 16.16 | 5.6% | 28.7% | 23.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lusitânia Lourosa
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Lusitânia Lourosa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00