Lusitânia Lourosavs
Chaves
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lusitânia Lourosa · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Lusitânia Lourosa 2-0 Chaves, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves
Original prediction
Lusitânia Lourosa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.0% | 63.2% | 23.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.8% | 20.7% | -9.1 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 30.2% | 16.1% | -14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.2 pts
Projected Score
Lusitânia Lourosa 2–0 Chaves
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Lusitânia Lourosa
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Lusitânia Lourosa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80