Lusitano Évora 1911vs
SC Covilha
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 9/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lusitano Évora 1911 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lusitano Évora 1911 0-0 SC Covilha, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lusitano Évora 1911 2-2 SC Covilha
Original prediction
Lusitano Évora 1911
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.1% | 39.3% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.4% | 30.7% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.6% | 30.0% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Projected Score
Lusitano Évora 1911 0–0 SC Covilha
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Lusitano Évora 1911
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Lusitano Évora 1911 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00