Lusail Cityvs
Al Wakrah
COMPLETEDQatar · Stars League · 9/4/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Wakrah · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lusail City 4-0 Al Wakrah
Original prediction
Al Wakrah
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 21.0% | 35.8% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.3% | 25.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.6% | 39.2% | -16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Al Wakrah
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Al Wakrah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80