Lusail Cityvs
Al Shamal
COMPLETEDQatar · Stars League · 10/17/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lusail City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lusail City 0-0 Al Shamal
Original prediction
Lusail City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 26.2% | 40.3% | 14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.3% | 23.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.6% | 35.8% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Lusail City
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Lusail City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20