Lusail Cityvs
Al-Markhiya
COMPLETEDQatar · QSL Cup · 9/21/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Markhiya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lusail City 1-0 Al-Markhiya
Original prediction
Al-Markhiya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.4% | 32.2% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.9% | 22.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.7% | 45.6% | 17.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Al-Markhiya
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Al-Markhiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60