Lundvs
Trelleborg
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Södra · 10/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trelleborg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lund 2-4 Trelleborg
Original prediction
Trelleborg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 39.5% | 36.7% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.6% | 23.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 33.9% | 39.6% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Trelleborg
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Trelleborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80