Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lund · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lund 2-0 Rosengård
Original prediction
Lund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.2% | 48.6% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 25.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 33.7% | 25.8% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Lund
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Lund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LundDWWLD
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RosengårdWWDDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LundRosengård
53.3Attack44.4
64.4Defence61.1
61.1Form45.6
61.0Power51.1
1.38xG0.84