Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Triestina · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lumezzane are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Triestina are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Triestina hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (50.8 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Triestina holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Triestina
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Triestina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00