Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lumezzane · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lumezzane 2-2 Renate
Original prediction
Lumezzane
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.1% | 39.9% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.8% | 29.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.1% | 30.4% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Lumezzane
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Lumezzane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LumezzaneLWLDD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RenateLLLLD
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LumezzaneRenate
43.0Attack0.0
57.9Defence66.7
46.5Form0.0
50.8Power23.7
1.27xG0.86