Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lumezzane · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lumezzane 0-0 Novara
Original prediction
Lumezzane
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 35.1% | 37.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.4% | 29.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.6% | 33.3% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Lumezzane
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Lumezzane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LumezzaneDLWLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NovaraLWDDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LumezzaneNovara
66.7Attack66.7
33.3Defence33.3
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.36xG1.16