Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lumezzane · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lumezzane are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Novara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Lumezzane hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (50.8 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Lumezzane holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lumezzane
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Lumezzane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80