Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lumezzane · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lumezzane are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Novara are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Lumezzane hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (50.8 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.3% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Lumezzane holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lumezzane
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Lumezzane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20