Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mantova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Lumezzane are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Mantova are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Mantova hold an 18.0-point power-rating edge (50.8 v 68.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.1% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Mantova holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mantova
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Mantova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20