Lumezzanevs
Folgore Caratese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/26/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lumezzane · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lumezzane 1-2 Folgore Caratese
Original prediction
Lumezzane
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 39.8% | 40.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.4% | 28.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 31.8% | 31.7% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Lumezzane
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Lumezzane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40