Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lumezzane are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Alcione are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lumezzane hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (50.8 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.4% in the Serie C - Girone A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20