Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lujan are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lugano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lujan hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 55.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20