Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lujan are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Canuelas are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 0 passed 2.5 goals, and Lujan hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 31.3% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
31.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40