Lugovs
UD Logroñés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/12/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugo 3-1 UD Logroñés
Original prediction
Lugo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.6% | 38.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 27.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.0% | 33.4% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Lugo
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Lugo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20