Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lugo are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (LWD), averaging 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded, while Teruel are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Lugo hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (48.2 v 44.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.0% in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.67/0.67
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60