Lugovs
Racing Ferrol
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/26/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugo 0-0 Racing Ferrol, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugo 1-0 Racing Ferrol
Original prediction
Lugo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.3% | 38.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.4% | 31.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.3% | 30.8% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Projected Score
Lugo 0–0 Racing Ferrol
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Lugo
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Lugo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LugoWWDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Racing FerrolWWLDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
LugoRacing Ferrol
34.2Attack0.0
59.6Defence66.7
43.9Form0.0
48.2Power23.7
1.01xG0.84