Lugovs
Deportivo La Coruña II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugo 1-0 Deportivo La Coruña II, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugo 3-0 Deportivo La Coruña II
Original prediction
Lugo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 51.7% | 54.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.1% | 25.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 22.2% | 20.4% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Projected Score
Lugo 1–0 Deportivo La Coruña II
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Lugo
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Lugo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LugoWWWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Deportivo La Coruña IILLWDW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LugoDeportivo La Coruña II
57.1Attack44.4
81.0Defence61.1
90.5Form44.4
79.4Power52.0
1.56xG0.69