Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugo 0-0 CD Coria, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugo 1-0 CD Coria
Original prediction
Lugo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.9% | 38.3% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 30.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 20.9% | 31.3% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Projected Score
Lugo 0–0 CD Coria
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Lugo
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Lugo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LugoDWWWL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CD CoriaWLDWL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LugoCD Coria
34.2Attack50.0
59.6Defence50.0
43.9Form50.0
48.2Power50.0
0.95xG0.97