Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugazi 0-0 Police, with an exact score probability of 35%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugazi 0-2 Police
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 31.6% | 28.4% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.84 | 31.3% | 35.9% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.1% | 35.8% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Projected Score
Lugazi 0–0 Police
Exact score probability: 35%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LugaziWLWLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PoliceDLWDD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LugaziPolice
21.1Attack30.0
63.3Defence68.9
34.4Form40.0
41.8Power48.6
0.46xG0.61