Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugazi 0-0 Express, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugazi 0-0 Express
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 33.6% | 32.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.77 | 32.1% | 32.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.2% | 34.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Projected Score
Lugazi 0–0 Express
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.5%
Model confidence
34.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LugaziDLLWL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ExpressLDDLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LugaziExpress
22.2Attack22.2
50.0Defence66.7
38.9Form27.8
40.5Power40.8
0.75xG0.80