Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BUL · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugazi 0-0 BUL
Original prediction
BUL
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.27 | 16.9% | 19.1% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.4% | 26.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 54.7% | 54.8% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
BUL
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
BUL has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LugaziLLWLW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BULWWWWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LugaziBUL
26.7Attack91.7
40.0Defence75.0
40.0Form100.0
39.3Power89.7
0.69xG1.73